New model seeks to predict coastal changes in real-time

Strong winds, heavy rain, flooding and other significant weather events can cause a bad day at the beach. While these developments might just mean a day inside for some, they can also cause coastal changes that are detrimental to naval operations.

Coastal changes such as sandbar shifts or broken water barriers can threaten operations led by the U.S. Navy, as well as damage operational infrastructure, reduce readiness and increase safety risks. As a result, it is imperative for researchers to understand and predict these shifts. 

“Current existing models — like XBeach and Delft3D — can simulate accurate changes to coastal infrastructure,” said Dr. Wencheng Jin, assistant professor in Texas A&M University’s petroleum engineering department. “However, these models can be slow because they require a lot of computing power. By the time you get results, it’s too late to act on them in real time.” 

Faster models capable of depicting coastal changes in real time are critical and can give the Navy an opportunity to make quick decisions before or during a disaster. Jin is working on developing such a model through a grant from the Office of Naval Research Young Investigator Program.  

The initiative supports early-career academic researchers who show strong potential for innovative work, helping them launch their research while providing solutions to current naval needs. 

“Accurate and real-time coastal change models give the Navy a big operational advantage,” Jin said. “It can improve planning and decision-making and enhance naval response to extreme events, which minimizes loss, speeds up recovery and reduces disruptions to operations.” 

With the grant, Jin aims to tackle key challenges in nearshore modeling by developing Accelerated XBeach (AXBeach) — a high-performance computational tool designed to simulate and forecast nearshore hydro-morphodynamic processes, or how waves and currents move sediment and reshape the coastline. 

“The objective of AXBeach is to simulate real-time, highly accurate water motion changes to the shape of the coast, especially during events like storms,” Jin said. 

The new model, which harnesses the power of machine learning and graphics processing unit computing, would be several orders of magnitude faster than existing models while maintaining accuracy. 

“These capabilities will ensure the Navy remains at the forefront of coastal security, disaster preparedness and mission readiness in an increasingly volatile landscape,” Jin said.